This article is written because gogoro, a power exchange model in Taiwan, has encountered the storm of full tariff model, which makes us begin to question the profitability of this model. In addition, gogoro has frequently contacted two rounds of large Chinese manufacturing enterprises recently and began to prepare for entering the mainland.

This time, we preset a premise, that is, the electric motorcycle, that is, the generation 1 and generation 2 models sold by gogoro in Taiwan, is the basis for calculation（ The figure above is not gogoro, which is felo's upcoming product)

The most interesting topic of electric motorcycles in the world is endurance! To solve the problem of battery life, we must solve one of the following two problems: 1. Solve the bottleneck of battery technology, and the energy density exceeds that of gasoline. However, it seems that there is little possibility of commercialization in 5-10 years. 2. Solve the energy supplement speed and reach the time level of fuel vehicle refueling. Then many companies began to vigorously develop power replacement, because compared with the refueling time, it can be said that the energy supplement can be completed in almost the same time.

So the electricity was changed into a tram, and the sesame on the revolutionary road opened the door.

So why do many enterprises choose charging, represented by felo and Vespa, and switching is represented by gogoro. Other enterprises generally design their vehicles as home charging with power exchange potential. The difference between the three is that the battery of felo line is not removable, and plug-in is the only way to supplement energy. Gogoro line is to sell vehicles without batteries. The company holds batteries to build replacement power stations, and the others are designed as removable batteries, and the vehicles purchased by users include batteries. Such as kymco, Honda, etc

So what happens if the gogoro model leaves Taiwan and comes to the mainland or Europe and the United States? Let's do a simple preview.

We make a simple calculation based on the to-b model that is the easiest to realize in the mainland, because places with large and deep territory such as the mainland and Europe and the United States have essential traffic characteristics different from the island of Taiwan. To-b is the commercial tram industry, such as takeout and express, which have fixed gathering points and high daily utilization rate. It is easier to realize the power exchange model. It is also easy to calculate

Taking gogoro's own big data statistics as an example, commercial users average 3500km per month. Then the tariff standard in Taiwan is based on the announcement of gogoro's official website.

In short, the monthly rent of NT $799 includes 600km, the remaining mileage is NT $1.5, and the remaining mileage is NT $1900km2 (calculated as 3500km / month). Then the monthly expenditure of NT $5499 is converted into RMB, which is about 235 yuan according to the conversion of NT $100 into 23.46 yuan.

A gogoro standard 40 grid base station is used to serve a network. In a place like Shanghai, there is almost no free use, so can you make a profit?

First, the 40 grid base station must place at least 38 batteries, two of which are used to replace the old batteries. According to gogoro's own introduction, the battery is calculated according to 130% of the number of vehicles used. (there are two batteries in the vehicle, so there are at least two batteries in the electric cabinet to supplement electricity. According to the 130% ratio, each power exchange station has at least 164.44 gogoro batteries. The cost of each battery is calculated according to the price system of the cheapest mainland in the world, which is 1800-2000 yuan, If we take the lower 1800 yuan / piece, it will cost 296400 yuan to replace the power station. To know that the battery has cycle life, we can refer to the general balance vehicle for 500 times. Although some imports claim to reach 2000 cycles, 700-800 times is more reasonable according to the 1800 yuan domestic battery. We calculate according to more than 800 times.

Then, if a 40 grid base station, 164 cells, 3500km monthly usage and 80km driving for each power change are calculated (the official range and actual use still vary greatly, and we look for the range of 80km generally recognized by the user group in Taiwan), then the base station can serve 82 vehicles, Moreover, the average monthly power change times of 82 vehicles is 43.75, that is, 1.5 times a day without rest. Regardless, official big data is like this.

The income of each power station is well calculated, 235 yuan x82 cars = 19270 yuan. In Shanghai, such cabinets need at least 10 square meters of land, and the monthly rent is 2000 yuan. The service personnel serve 30 base stations according to two people. Each base station costs 700 yuan of labor expenditure, and the electricity fee must be calculated according to the commercial electricity price. The commercial electricity price in Shanghai is 1.145 yuan and 0.4562 yuan, and the electricity fee needs 9699 yuan according to the proportion of 40% in the evening and 60% in the day. The depreciation life of the battery is 800 times, 43.75 times a month without a car, 1.3 times the ratio, that is, the battery depreciation lasts for 24 months, which is 12350 yuan per month, and the cost sharing is 24749 yuan per month. Of course, it does not include the construction investment of electric cabinet. According to the calculation of income and expenditure, the profit and loss is 5479 yuan.

This is only a simple calculation. If the electric cabinet is 20000 yuan and 10 grids, the construction investment cost of a station is 80000 yuan for equipment, and the battery needs 740000 yuan in five years (regardless of the continuous decline of subsequent battery costs, it is calculated according to today's market price). The investment recovery cost is calculated according to five years and 15% of the capital annualized income, then the capital cost of each replacement power station is 21580 yuan / month. Add the electricity charge, add the rental labor, and do not calculate other damage risks of the battery, then the minimum monthly income is 33979 yuan. In this way, changing electricity is not a good business.

From the perspective of users, if 33979 yuan is replaced by gasoline vehicles, the most popular scooter of Yamaha Qiaoge I will consume 1.8 liters of fuel per 100 kilometers, and the purchase price is also equivalent to the subsidized price of gogoro2 in Taiwan. So how many kilometers can the same 82 cars drive? Of course, we should blame today's low oil price of 5.47 yuan per liter in Shanghai. To be fair, the venue rent is calculated on the basis of 31979 yuan. Then you can drive 3960 km, which is 460 km less than changing the power of an oil vehicle. There is no advantage for users, unless the car factory chooses not to make money and continues to subsidize users for a lifetime.

The above simple calculation does not include invisible and complex calculations such as battery recycling, but it is too early to make a profit at least for commercial power exchange. However, the idea of cultivating traffic re realization through Internet thinking is not the topic of this paper.

There is no correct answer in this article, which is left for you to continue to think in this industry